Thursday, June 30, 2005

i really know how it feels to be stressed out

Maybe a revision on this later, but here's my response to the latest Blogpoll Bicker:

1. What's THE critical game of the season on the national scene? We're looking for the one that will influence the most outcomes in a single span of sixty minutes. Please try to diversify your answers and think of something other than Ohio State-Texas, for example.

2.What's the most critical matchup for your team? Again, we know we'll hear OSU-Michigan from you Wolverines, but we ask you to think in terms of multiple scenarios here.

3. What's your wingnut upset prediction of year?
No hedging (or common sense) wanted here; we know everyone has a paint-chip eating, lunatic pick lurking somewhere in their brain. Go ahead and fess up on the record so you can gloat with pride later.

It's been said that you need to visualize success before it can occur...but at least for me, whenever I want to predict sports I visualize Around The Horn talking points. I envision outrage over Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno's obsolescence. I visualize the same old playoff/BCS talk. I visualize Woody Paige failing to make a point. So here goes...

1. Since the obvious(ly good) ones have already been taken, in an outside pick, I'm going with Louisville-WVU. If the people in Morgantown aren't burning couches after the game, I simply don't see another contest for the Cards where they have a realistic possibility of losing, thus pushing the BCS envelope even further, since they've had a more historically legit program and a longer run of excellence than Utah. Should Lou pass this test, we'll finally get to see whether a mid-major champ could take out a 10-2 Big XII squad, which will go a long way towards legitimizing or destroying the BCS' credibility. And that sure sounds critical to me.

2. Most important UVA game: at Boston College

- Much has been made of UVA's 1-4 record against ranked teams in the last two seasons, the "1" coming from a 2003 beatdown of a Virginia A&M team that already mailed in its season along with its resubscription to Sexual Offense Monthly. It's somewhat of a deceptive stat, though, as UVA's schedules seem to be composed of teams that either finish 4-7, 6-5 or 10-2, which usually leads us to the 8-4ish seasons that George Welsh gave us for over a decade (remember that stat of which teams had the longest consecutive streak of seasons with 7 or more wins that put us with Michigan and Nebraska? I sure fucking do). Take last year; they handled their bizness against the Clemsons and Syracuses of the world while the Football U's exposed them as a team with an offense that simply wasn't built to play from behind. In other words, for a team at UVA's non-elite level, they haven't had a lot of chances to punch their weight against teams that rank in the mid-to-late teens. This is a perfect test after what should be a 4-0 start. Like most years, we can budget for three losses, since even at home, taking out questionable V A&M/FSU teams is a brutal task, and a win at the Orange Bowl would be a gift from the gods. I'm not sold on Maryland yet, so this right here is the difference between playing in a bowl after December 28th for the first time in the Groh Era and keeping your fingers crossed for that trip to scenic Orlando.

3. Bizarre upset: South Florida over Penn State

- Looks like Boise-UGA is becoming the equivalent of "Arular": it's not backlash if the so-called experts were wrong about it in the first place. Like I said before, BSU will win by 3 or UGA will blow them out. Many are basing a Boise win on the fact they held tight with Louisville in their bowl game, ignoring the fact that UL couldn't give a flying fuck about defense either. I know UGA will put up at least 30 on the Broncos because they're in no way equipped to stop UGA's potentially scary running attack. The question is whether Boise can do likewise. My money's on "hell no."

But anyways, Penn State's not a rejuvenated program; they just play one on the blogosphere. Once again, this is simply wishful thinking based on my vision of the PTI guys discussing Tapioca Joe's steady descent into Larry King madness. Really, the best case scenario for PSU is a Northwestern-in-the-mid-90's season, but with that, you gotta take the inexplicable non-con loss. Nothing like the inaugural game to show that all the blue-chip WRs in the world don't mean jack if you haven't used what Knute Rockne called "the forward pass" in the 21st century.